Moody’s reported that its trailing 12-month global speculative-grade default rate stood at 4.3% at the end of September 2026, down from 4.7% in September 2025. Its baseline scenario sees the global default rate declining to 3.8% in December 2026. For comparison, Moody’s puts the global historical average default rate at 4.2%. The U.S. speculative-grade default rate was 5.2% in September. Moody’s baseline scenario sees the U.S. default rate falling to 4.6% in December 2026.