Implications: The labor market is clearly getting better.  Those who have denied the recovery, or its strength, have some explaining to do.  (And remember, we are well past the point where government spending is supposed to be lifting the economy.  It's also before the Fed started QE II.)  Private payrolls increased 159,000 in October and gained 252,000 including upward revisions to prior months.  This is more than enough to generate a trend decline in the unemployment rate in the months ahead.  Meanwhile, businesses are asking for more hours from each worker and raising pay per hour.  As a result, total cash earnings for all private-sector workers increased 0.7% in October and are up 4.5% in the past year.  This means workers will be able to keep lifting consumer spending even as they also continue to pay down debt.  The one negative spot in today's report was the household survey, which showed a decline of 330,000 civilian jobs in October.  As opposed to the payroll survey, which asks businesses how many people are working for them, the household survey is calculated by knocking on doors.  It's a smaller survey, and prone to volatility from month to month, so we're not shocked by weakness when payrolls are growing.  However, because it includes the self-employed and small start-up businesses, the household survey is better at picking up economic turning points when viewed over longer time periods.  So far this year, while private payrolls are up 112,000 per month, the household survey's measure of employment is up 151,000 per month.  In other words, we think the payroll increases so far this year are likely to accelerate in the year ahead.

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