 | Non-farm payrolls were up 103,000 in September |
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| Posted Under: Data Watch • Employment |
Implications: The employment report for September shows, without a shadow of a doubt, that the US economy is not in recession. Including upward revisions for July and August, nonfarm payrolls increased 202,000. That easily beat consensus expectations of a 60,000 gain and is a solid gain even if we exclude the 45,000 workers who ended a strike with Verizon. In addition, the number of weekly hours per worker increased to 34.3 from 34.2 in August, which is the equivalent of 320,000 jobs. But the good news does not stop there. Civilian employment, an alternative measure of jobs that factors in small business start-ups, increased 398,000. This was enough to keep the unemployment rate at 9.1% despite a 423,000 gain in the size of the labor force, the largest increase in more than a year. Very quietly, without any fanfare, private sector payrolls have grown by 1.8 million in the past year, while the workweek has lengthened and hourly cash wages are up 1.9%. A 9.1% unemployment rate means the labor market is still far from operating at its full potential, but it is moving in the right direction as are other data. September chain store sales were up 5.5% versus a year ago, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. This includes luxury department store sales up 10.4%. Meanwhile, core railcar loadings are up 5.7% versus a year ago, according to data from the Association of American Railroads. Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 6,000 last week to 401,000. But continuing claims for regular state benefits declined 52,000 to 3.70 million. Investors have been grossly misled about the odds of a recession.
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