Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  Existing home sales up 4.0% in November
Posted Under: Data Watch • Home Sales • Housing
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 
Implications:  The big headline on existing homes is that sales were revised down 14 percent for the past few years because the National Association of Realtors made mistakes that apparently resulted in double counting.  These revisions were well publicized, so it is strange that so many forecasters (but not First Trust) ignored this and continued to predict more than 5 million sales.  So, while sales fell about 12 percent below consensus, the data also show that sales were up 4% in November and 12% from a year ago.  Meanwhile the inventory of homes is down 18% versus last year and at the lowest level since 2005.  This resulted in a 7 months' supply of unsold homes, the lowest since 2009.  The healing in the housing market is further along than previously thought. The pessimistic narrative you may hear elsewhere about how bad today's report was and how ugly the revisions were is simply not true.  Reported existing home sales never fell by as much as new home sales or home building the last few years. So, today's revisions fix the problem caused by over counting. In addition, existing home sales only measure a shift in assets from a buyer to a seller.  They do not count as current production and will have no impact on our GDP forecast. As the inventory of existing homes continues to be whittled down, we expect a steady recovery in the housing market.

Click here for a printable version.
Posted on Wednesday, December 21, 2011 @ 1:34 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Search Posts
 PREVIOUS POSTS
Housing starts increased 9.3% in November to 685,000 units at an annual rate
Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
“Net Debtor” Status Still Not a Problem
CPI unchanged in November
First Trust Wins Economic Forecaster of the Month Award
Consumer Financial Burdens – Less Than You Think
Industrial production down 0.2% in November
The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.3% in November
Wesbury 101 Video Commentary - "The Republicans' Big Mistake"
Home Sales Overcounted
Archive
Skip Navigation Links.
Expand 20242024
Expand 20232023
Expand 20222022
Expand 20212021
Expand 20202020
Expand 20192019
Expand 20182018
Expand 20172017
Expand 20162016
Expand 20152015
Expand 20142014
Expand 20132013
Expand 20122012
Expand 20112011
Expand 20102010

Search by Topic
Skip Navigation Links.

 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.