Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  Nonfarm Payrolls Increased 156,000 in September
Posted Under: Data Watch • Employment
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 

Implications:  The major headlines on today's employment report were a little weaker than expected, but a close look at the details shows the report was much stronger than the headlines.  The first key headline was that nonfarm payrolls expanded 156,000 in September, while prior months were revised down a net 7,000.  That leaves us short of the consensus expected 172,000.  However, government payrolls fell 11,000 in September and were revised down 21,000 for prior months.  Private sector payrolls, including upward revisions for prior months, came in higher than the consensus expected.  Meanwhile, civilian employment, an alternative measure of jobs that includes small-business start-ups, grew 354,000 in September and is up 252,000 per month in the past year.  Although some analysts will say part-timers accounted for all the gain in September, the data separating full-timers and part-timers are extremely volatile from month to month.  In the past year, part-time employment is up only 52,000 per month.  The other negative headline was that the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.0% from 4.9%.  But that was due to rounding.  The unrounded jobless rate was 4.965% in September versus 4.922% in August, so the unrounded change in the jobless rate was less than half of the 0.1 percentage point increase.  Moreover, the main reason for the increase in the jobless rate was a 444,000 gain in the labor force, which is now up more than 3 million in the past year, the largest increase since 2006 and larger than almost any 12-month period in the late 1990s.  The participation rate is still very low by the standards of the past generation, but the cyclical improvement in the economy is now offsetting downward pressure from aging Boomers, easily available disability benefits, and overly generous student aid.  Other details in the report also signal strength.  Total hours worked increased 0.4% and are up 1.6% in the past year.  Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in September and are up 2.6% from a year ago.  Combined, this means total cash earnings (which exclude fringe benefits and irregular bonuses/commissions) are up 4.3% in the past year, which is plenty of fuel to push consumer spending higher.  Meanwhile, the median duration of unemployment fell back to 10.3 weeks, tying the low so far in the expansion.  One last key positive was that the share of voluntary job leavers among the unemployed was 11.2% in September, near the highest since 2007.  In the past, Fed Chief Yellen has said a higher share of leavers indicates more labor market tightness.  Taken as a whole, we think the Fed will view today's report as a reason to stay on track for a December rate hike.     

Click here for PDF version

Posted on Friday, October 7, 2016 @ 10:43 AM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Search Posts
 PREVIOUS POSTS
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Rose to 57.1 in September
The Trade Deficit in Goods and Services Came in at $40.7 Billion in August
Austan Goolsbee is Wrong
The ISM Manufacturing Index Rose to 51.5 in September
Cut Spending to Grow Economy
M2 and C&I Loan Growth
Personal Income Increased 0.2% in August
Real GDP Growth in Q2 was Revised up to a 1.4% Annual Rate
New Orders for Durable Goods Were Unchanged in August
New Single-Family Home Sales Declined 7.6% in August
Archive
Skip Navigation Links.
Expand 20242024
Expand 20232023
Expand 20222022
Expand 20212021
Expand 20202020
Expand 20192019
Expand 20182018
Expand 20172017
Expand 20162016
Expand 20152015
Expand 20142014
Expand 20132013
Expand 20122012
Expand 20112011
Expand 20102010

Search by Topic
Skip Navigation Links.

 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.