Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  Real GDP Growth in Q3 was Revised to a 3.5% Annual Rate
Posted Under: Data Watch • GDP
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 

Implications: Today's final GDP report for the third quarter showed real economic growth at a 3.5% annual rate, slightly better than consensus expectations, and the fastest growth in two years.  The upward revisions were due to business investment and personal consumption, which means the "mix" of growth was favorable for the year ahead.  Although corporate profits were revised down slightly, they were still up 5.8% in Q3 and up 2.1% from a year ago.  The lull in profits over the past year and a half has been an energy story. But as energy prices are well off their lows from earlier this year, we expect higher profits in the quarters to come.  Meanwhile, plugging the new profits data into our capitalized profits model suggests US equities remain cheap, not only at today's interest rates but even using a 10-year Treasury yield in the 3.5% - 4% range.  In terms of monetary policy, the Fed should see today's report as a confirmation that they made the right decision to raise short-term rates last week.  Nominal GDP growth (real growth plus inflation) was revised to 5% annual rate in Q3 from a prior estimate of 4.6%.  Nominal GDP is up 2.9% in the past year and up at a 3.1% annual rate in the past two years, leaving the Fed plenty of room for rate hikes in 2017.  Monetary policy will not be restrictive until the federal funds rate is moved close to nominal GDP growth.  That's still a long way off.  In other news today, the FHFA index, which measures prices for homes financed with conforming mortgages, increased 0.4% in October.  In the past year, these home prices are up 6.2% versus a 6.0% increase in the year ending in October 2015.  Look for continued gains in home prices in the year ahead, as jobs keep expanding, wage growth accelerates, and any headwind created by an increase in mortgage rates is offset by expectations of faster future economic growth.

Click here for PDF version

Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2016 @ 9:38 AM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Search Posts
 PREVIOUS POSTS
Existing Home Sales Increased 0.7% in November
Greedy Innkeeper or Generous Capitalist?
M2 and C&I Loan Growth
Housing Starts Declined 18.7% in November
The Consumer Price Index Increased 0.2% in November
The Fed Turns Hawkish
Industrial Production Declined 0.4% in November
Retail Sales Rose 0.1% in November
The Producer Price Index Rose 0.4% in November
Rally is Real, Not “Hope & Faith”
Archive
Skip Navigation Links.
Expand 20242024
Expand 20232023
Expand 20222022
Expand 20212021
Expand 20202020
Expand 20192019
Expand 20182018
Expand 20172017
Expand 20162016
Expand 20152015
Expand 20142014
Expand 20132013
Expand 20122012
Expand 20112011
Expand 20102010

Search by Topic
Skip Navigation Links.

 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.