Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  The Trade Deficit in Goods and Services Came in at $55.2 Billion in June
Posted Under: Data Watch • Trade
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 

Implications: The Trump Administration may like the reduction in the trade deficit in June, but the details of today's report showed relative weakness in international trade.  Exports fell by 2.1% in June, while imports declined 1.7%.  As a result, the total volume of trade (imports plus exports), which signals how much businesses and consumers interact across the US border, which is what really matters, fell by 1.9% in June and is now down 0.3% from a year ago.  In the past year, exports are down 2.2% while imports have risen 1.2%.  There is a lot of angst out there from the pouting pundits that the China trade battle is nowhere near done.  We think the worst-case-scenarios much discussed by the financial press will prove excessively pessimistic, as they so often do.  We still don't believe an all-out trade war will materialize, but rather that these short-term skirmishes will lead to longer-term gains for all countries involved. No, President Trump's announcement of 10% tariffs on an additional $300 billion in Chinese imports (starting September 1st, 2019) yesterday is not a good thing in and of itself.  But China is hurting, and this ratchets up the pressure to get a deal done.  So far this year, US imports from China are down 12.4% from the same period in 2018, while up 33.4% from Vietnam, 20.2% from Taiwan, 10.7% from South Korea, 10.0% from India, and 6.3% from Mexico.  Companies are shifting production out of China.  And the longer this drags on, the worse the outcome will be for China. The list of companies leaving China continues to grow and, at some point, the damage will become too much.  It's in everyone's best interest to get a deal done.  In other recent news, automakers reported selling cars and light trucks at a 16.9 million annual rate in July, down 2.0% versus June and down 0.7% from a year ago.  However, the gradual slowdown in auto sales is a reflection of sales during recent years which exceeded those suggested by population growth and average fleet age, not a sign of overall economic weakness.  Consumers are shifting their purchasing power to other sectors.

Click here  for PDF version

Posted on Friday, August 2, 2019 @ 10:50 AM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Search Posts
 PREVIOUS POSTS
The ISM Manufacturing Index Declined to 51.2 in July
Drip Drip Drip
How We Get 4% Growth
Personal Income Rose 0.4% in June
Solid GDP Report
The First Estimate for Q2 Real GDP Growth is 2.1% at an Annual Rate
New Orders for Durable Goods Rose 2.0% in June
New Single-Family Home Sales Increased 7.0% in June
Existing Home Sales Declined 1.7% in June
Temporary Tepid Growth for Q2
Archive
Skip Navigation Links.
Expand 20242024
Expand 20232023
Expand 20222022
Expand 20212021
Expand 20202020
Expand 20192019
Expand 20182018
Expand 20172017
Expand 20162016
Expand 20152015
Expand 20142014
Expand 20132013
Expand 20122012
Expand 20112011
Expand 20102010

Search by Topic
Skip Navigation Links.

 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.