Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  Retail Sales Rose 0.3% in May
Posted Under: Data Watch • Employment • Inflation • Retail Sales
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 

Implications:  Retail sales beat expectations in May, rising 0.3% for the month versus a consensus expected decline of 0.2% and with ten of the thirteen major categories moving upward.  The increase in May was led by surprising gains in autos and building materials.  The largest decline again was at gas stations, where, due to lower seasonal prices, sales are down 20.5% from a year ago. “Core” sales, which exclude the most volatile categories of autos, building materials, and gas stations, and are an important measure for estimating GDP, rose 0.2% in May and are up 4.4% from a year ago.  In the last twelve months, overall retail sales are up only 1.6%, clearly lagging inflation.  Sales at restaurants & bars, the only look at the service sector we get in this report, rose 0.4% in May and are still up a healthy 8.0% from a year ago.  In other words, the consumer continues to shift more of their purchases to services over the goods sector, a trend that will likely continue.  “Real” (inflation-adjusted) retail sales are down slightly from where they were two years ago and we expect them to be down in the year ahead.  Consumers continue to face a headwind from inflation, which is largely offsetting gains in hourly pay, and services have finally risen back to trend after lockdowns.  Our view remains that the tightening in monetary policy since last year will eventually deliver a recession.  In other news today, import prices declined 0.6% in May while export prices fell 1.9%.  In the past year, import prices are down 5.9%, while export prices are down 10.1%.  Also today, on the employment front, initial claims for jobless benefits held steady at 262,000.  The four-week moving average rose to nearly 249,000, the highest level since November 2021.  Continuing claims increased 20,000 to 1.775 million.  These figures suggest a moderation of job growth in June.

Click here for a PDF version

Posted on Thursday, June 15, 2023 @ 10:48 AM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Search Posts
 PREVIOUS POSTS
Industrial Production Declined 0.2% in May
The Fed Is All Mixed Up
The Producer Price Index (PPI) Declined 0.3% in May
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Rose 0.1% in May
It’s Still About the Money
High Frequency Data Tracker 6/9/2023
The Trade Deficit in Goods and Services Came in at $74.6 Billion in April
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Declined to 50.3 in May
Jobs With Little Growth Means Less Productivity
High Frequency Data Tracker 6/2/2023
Archive
Skip Navigation Links.
Expand 20242024
Expand 20232023
Expand 20222022
Expand 20212021
Expand 20202020
Expand 20192019
Expand 20182018
Expand 20172017
Expand 20162016
Expand 20152015
Expand 20142014
Expand 20132013
Expand 20122012
Expand 20112011
Expand 20102010

Search by Topic
Skip Navigation Links.

 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.