Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  The Trade Deficit in Goods and Services Came in at $63.2 Billion in November
Posted Under: Data Watch • Markets • Trade
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 

Implications: The trade deficit in goods and services shrunk to $63.2 billion in November as imports declined faster than exports.  However, we prefer to focus on the total volume of trade, imports plus exports, as it shows the extent of business and consumer interaction across the US border. This measure pulled back significantly in November, falling by $11.0 billion and is up only 0.2% from a year ago.  Exports are only up 0.4% versus a year ago, while imports are up 0.1%, consistent with our forecast that the US is headed toward a recession.  And while a recent surge in the federal budget deficit might have helped the US economy avoid recession in the short-term, this kind of artificial support can’t last.  Notably, there is a major shift going on in the pattern of US trade.  For 2023 through November, imports from China are down 21.2% year-to-date versus the same timeframe in 2022.  China used to be the top exporter to the US.  Now the top spot is held by Mexico, with China and Canada flip flopping month by month between second and third.  Meanwhile, daily freight rates have fallen rapidly and are back down to pre-COVID levels, or lower, as demand for shipping has stabilized.  This was confirmed by the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index in November, with the index moving to positive territory, 0.13 standard deviations above the index’s historical average. Expect some temporary volatility into the new year though as Yemen’s Houthi rebels continue to deter container ships from transiting the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, temporarily adding significantly to shipping costs.  Also in today’s report, the dollar value of US petroleum exports exceeding imports once again.  This marks the 21st consecutive month of the US being a net exporter of petroleum products.

Click here for a PDF version

Posted on Tuesday, January 9, 2024 @ 11:33 AM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Search Posts
 PREVIOUS POSTS
Low Quality Growth
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Declined to 50.6 in December
Nonfarm Payrolls Increased 216,000 in December
Three on Thursday - Immigration
The ISM Manufacturing Index Increased to 47.4 in December
The Housing Outlook: 2024
A Mild Recession and S&P 4,500
New Single-Family Home Sales Declined 12.2% in November
New Orders for Durable Goods Rose 5.4% in November
Three on Thursday - Retail Sales
Archive
Skip Navigation Links.
Expand 20242024
Expand 20232023
Expand 20222022
Expand 20212021
Expand 20202020
Expand 20192019
Expand 20182018
Expand 20172017
Expand 20162016
Expand 20152015
Expand 20142014
Expand 20132013
Expand 20122012
Expand 20112011
Expand 20102010

Search by Topic
Skip Navigation Links.

 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.