Past Performance is no guarantee of future results.

View from the Observation Deck

1. The average recovery period from a bear market in the S&P 500 is 39 months. (InvesTech Research)
2. The S&P 500 has never failed to recover.
3. The most recent bear market in U.S. stocks bottomed on 3/9/09. So we are a little more than 31 months into the recovery  as 10/19/11. 
4. As of the close of trading on 10/18/11, the S&P 500 would need to rally 27.7% to reach its previous high  of 1565.15 on 10/9/07. Hence recover. 
5. While we would not be so bold as to say we could experience a rally of the magnitude of 27.7% over the next 8 months, we can offer perspective.
6. From 1926-2010, the S&P 500 posted a calendar year total return that exceeded 27% a total of 20 times (see chart). Nearly 1 out of every 4 years. 
7. We believe that a rally can occur providing we get a meaningful debt stabilization package for Greece and/or others from the European Union.
8. We would hope that such an announcement will come soon. 
9. The forward-looking P/E on the S&P 500 was 12.23 as of 10/18/11. (Bloomberg)
10. Stocks, in our opinion, are inexpensive on a historical basis and offer the potential for significant upside.