Implications: Solid news on the economy coming from multiple reports yesterday and today. The ISM services index came in at 55.1, higher than the consensus expected in September, signaling a combination of some acceleration in that sector and an abatement of negative sentiment regarding Europe. This is the best reading on the index since March. The sub-index for business activity – which has a stronger correlation with economic growth than the overall index – soared to 59.9, the best reading since February. On the inflation front, the prices paid index rose to 68.1. This is consistent with our view that the recent lull in inflation is temporary given the loose stance of monetary policy. In other news this morning, the ADP employment index, a measure of private sector payrolls, increased 162,000 in September, narrowly beating consensus expectations. The report was consistent with our forecast that Friday's official Labor report will show payroll gains of 115,000 nonfarm (including government) and 150,000 private. In other recent news, automakers reported car and light truck sales at a 14.96 million annual rate in September, up 3 percent from August, 14 percent from a year ago, and the fastest pace since early 2008.
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Posted on Wednesday, October 3, 2012 @ 10:39 AM
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