President Obama says it's his Administration's goal to double US exports of goods and services in five years. The thing is, as long as the economic recovery continues – and we believe it will – a doubling of US exports is highly likely without any changes or improvements in public policy whatsoever.
Between mid-2003 and mid-2008, exports of goods and services went up 94%, so a gain of 100% over the same length of time would be no big deal. Moreover, given the huge decline in exports in late 2008, a doubling of exports in five years would be even easier to accomplish. Basically, by the end of 2013, exports would have to be only 60% higher than at the peak in mid-2008, before the financial panic artificially and temporarily reduced cross-border trade flows. That 60% increase is a gain of about 9% per year over a five and half year period, which, given the revival of global trade in general and the inclusion of export price inflation, is really no major accomplishment at all.
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Posted on Thursday, July 8, 2010 @ 4:24 PM
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