 | Weekly Data Strong Again, No Recession! |
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| Posted Under: Data Watch • Double Dip • Employment • Retail Sales |
After another week of monitoring high frequency indicators, through October 8th, there remains not even a hint that the US is in a recession, especially not another panic. The table above shows the high frequency indicators we've been following, which provide the most up to date information about the economy. Steel production is booming, up 12.5% from last year's level, and railcar loadings are up 3.4% versus a year ago. Looking at the consumer, weekly chain store sales are up 2.8% year over year according to the International Council of Shopping Centers and up 4.8% according to Redbook Research. Also, hotel occupancy is up 1.5% from last year. Box office receipts, which are volatile from week to week, were also up 3.8% YOY this past weekend. Finally, initial claims came in at 404,000. The four week moving average for claims came in at 408,000, down 10.6% from a year ago. The bottom line is the economy is growing, not contracting. Add to this the September data we received today on retail sales growing 1.1% in September (1.5% including revisions to July/August) and growth actually looks quite good for the third quarter.
We have been following these high frequency indicators for more than two months, and will continue to monitor them. But it is obvious to us that based on the data, there is no sign of a sharp downturn in the economy. Despite gloom and doom from many pundits and wild swings in equity and bond markets, the economy is doing fine, and will continue to do just fine in the months ahead.
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