 | No Recession in Sight, Growth Accelerated in Q3 |
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| Posted Under: Data Watch • Double Dip • Employment • Retail Sales |
After another week of monitoring high frequency indicators, through October 15th, there remains not even a hint that the US is in a recession, especially not another panic. The table above shows the high frequency indicators we've been following, which provide the most up to date information about the economy. Steel production is booming, up 14.3% from last year's level, and railcar loadings are up 3.9% versus a year ago. Looking at the consumer, weekly chain store sales are up 3.6% year over year according to the International Council of Shopping Centers and up 4.6% according to Redbook Research. Also, hotel occupancy is up 2.9% from last year. Box office receipts, which are volatile from week to week, fell 35.6% YOY this past weekend, but this deals with what movie came out last weekend compared to what came out a year ago. Finally, initial claims came in at 403,000. The four week moving average for claims also fell to 403,000, down 11% from a year ago. The bottom line is the economy is growing, not contracting. We are expecting that real GDP grew 3.5% in the third quarter, an acceleration from the second quarter.
We have been following these high frequency indicators for more than three months, and will continue to monitor them. But it is obvious to us that based on the data, there is no sign of a sharp downturn in the economy. Despite gloom and doom from many pundits and wild swings in equity and bond markets, the economy is doing fine, and will continue to do just fine in the months ahead.
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