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  Doubling Exports is a Low Hurdle
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President Obama says it's his Administration's goal to double US exports of goods and services in five years.  The thing is, as long as the economic recovery continues – and we believe it will – a doubling of US exports is highly likely without any changes or improvements in public policy whatsoever.

Between mid-2003 and mid-2008, exports of goods and services went up 94%, so a gain of 100% over the same length of time would be no big deal.  Moreover, given the huge decline in exports in late 2008, a doubling of exports in five years would be even easier to accomplish.  Basically, by the end of 2013, exports would have to be only 60% higher than at the peak in mid-2008, before the financial panic artificially and temporarily reduced cross-border trade flows.  That 60% increase is a gain of about 9% per year over a five and half year period, which, given the revival of global trade in general and the inclusion of export price inflation, is really no major accomplishment at all.
Posted on Thursday, July 8, 2010 @ 4:24 PM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
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