Home Logon FTA Investment Managers Blog Subscribe About Us Contact Us

Search by Ticker, Keyword or CUSIP       
 
 

Blog Home
   Brian Wesbury
Chief Economist
 
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
   Bob Stein
Deputy Chief Economist
Bio
X •  LinkedIn
 
  New Orders for Durable Goods Fell 4.4% in October
Posted Under: Data Watch • Durable Goods • GDP
Supporting Image for Blog Post

 

Implications:  Double-digit declines in both defense and civilian aircraft orders pulled down new orders for durable goods more than expected in October.  However, stripping out the typically volatile transportation sector – which fell 12.2% in October – shows core durable goods orders rose a modest 0.1%.  A look at the details shows declines in primary metals and machinery orders offset by increases in computers & electronic products, electrical equipment, and motor vehicles and parts.  But more important than month-to-month changes, the trend continues to show a healthy pace of activity, with total orders up 6.7% in the past year and orders excluding transportation up 4.4%.  The most anticipated data point in today's release was shipments of non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft (a key input for business investment in the calculation of GDP growth), which rose 0.3% in October after two months in a row of declines. It's still too early to tell if this represents a genuine shift back to expansion, but a return to growth in business investment would bode well for Q4 GDP.  Yes, downward revisions to August and September shipments of non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft dragged down annualized growth in Q3 versus the Q2 average from 7.7% to 7.2%.  However, this still implies a much faster pace of growth in the Q3 GDP measure of business investment than the tepid 0.8% annualized we saw in the first release of Q3 GDP last month.  Expect an upward revision in next week's second GDP report. Healthy growth in durable goods orders, a strong labor market, and the economy on track for the fastest annual growth in more than a decade begs the question, why is the financial media still so focused on doom and gloom?  As far as the data show, companies (and consumers) don't seem nearly as worried as the pouting pundits, and political posturing has little chance of denting the strong growth track that entrepreneurs and innovators have set us on.  In employment news this morning, initial jobless claims rose 3,000 last week to 224,000.  Meanwhile, continuing claims fell 2,000 to 1.67 million.  Expect further strength in payroll growth in November.

Click here for PDF version

Posted on Wednesday, November 21, 2018 @ 10:33 AM • Post Link Print this post Printer Friendly

These posts were prepared by First Trust Advisors L.P., and reflect the current opinion of the authors. They are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Search Posts
 PREVIOUS POSTS
Housing Starts Increased 1.5% in October
“Fading” Fiscal Stimulus; Really?
M2 and C&I Loan Growth
Industrial Production Rose 0.1% in October
Retail Sales Rose 0.8% in October
The Consumer Price Index Rose 0.3% in October
Fake Economics
M2 and C&I Loan Growth
The Producer Price Index Rose 0.6% in October
Stay the Course
Archive
Skip Navigation Links.
Expand 20242024
Expand 20232023
Expand 20222022
Expand 20212021
Expand 20202020
Expand 20192019
Expand 20182018
Expand 20172017
Expand 20162016
Expand 20152015
Expand 20142014
Expand 20132013
Expand 20122012
Expand 20112011
Expand 20102010

Search by Topic
Skip Navigation Links.

 
The information presented is not intended to constitute an investment recommendation for, or advice to, any specific person. By providing this information, First Trust is not undertaking to give advice in any fiduciary capacity within the meaning of ERISA, the Internal Revenue Code or any other regulatory framework. Financial professionals are responsible for evaluating investment risks independently and for exercising independent judgment in determining whether investments are appropriate for their clients.
Follow First Trust:  
First Trust Portfolios L.P.  Member SIPC and FINRA. (Form CRS)   •  First Trust Advisors L.P. (Form CRS)
Home |  Important Legal Information |  Privacy Policy |  California Privacy Policy |  Business Continuity Plan |  FINRA BrokerCheck
Copyright © 2024 All rights reserved.