View from the Observation Deck

1. This year's presidential election is 82 days from today. The two main candidates have clearly stated that their respective parties have very different visions for the country.
2. The chart shows total return figures for the S&P 500 during presidential election years since 1972. The high was 32.5% in 1980, while the low was -37.0% in 2008.
3. The average return over the 10 elections from 1972 through 2008 (2012 not a full year) was 9.4%, just a bit under the S&P 500's average annual return of 9.8% from 1926-2011, according to Ibbotson Associates/Morningstar).
4. Republicans won in 1972 (S&P 500 +19.2%), 1980 (S&P 500 +32.5%), 1984 (S&P 500 +6.3%), 1988 (S&P 500 +16.6%), 2000 (S&P 500 -9.1%) and 2004 (S&P 500 +10.9%).
5. Democrats won in 1976 (S&P 500 +23.9%), 1992 (S&P 500 +7.6%), 1996 (S&P 500 +22.9%) and 2008 (S&P 500 -37.0%).
6. The S&P 500 was up 13.3% year-to-date through 8/15. The index's closing price was 1405.53 on 8/15 – 10.2% below its all-time high of 1565.15 on 10/9/07.